Eric Gomez and Benjamin Giltner
There were multiple developments in US security assistance to Taiwan in September 2024, but the size of the arms sale backlog did not change from the previous month. The topline figure for the Taiwan arms sale backlog remains $20.5 billion. New information that came to light in September about several of the largest arms sale cases in the backlog is good news for Taiwan, but none of the arms sale cases completed delivery.
Figures 1 and 2 show how the backlog is divided between munitions, asymmetric capabilities, and traditional capabilities. Table 1 shows an itemized list of backlogged capabilities.
New Maintenance Sale
One new arms sale to Taiwan was notified to Congress in September 2024, but this sale is not included in our dataset because it is for maintenance.
On September 16, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of a $228 million sale of aircraft spare parts. We do not consider this new sale part of the arms sale backlog because, unlike the sales that are part of our dataset, Taiwan already possesses the weapons that the spare parts support and could use them to defend itself.
This most recent sale brings the Biden administration’s total maintenance sales to Taiwan to $2.45 billion over 12 sales, compared to the Trump administration’s $1.85 billion over 4 sales. Generally, the Biden administration has focused on selling new asymmetric weapons and munitions to Taiwan while maintaining Taiwan’s traditional capabilities. The Trump administration sold more traditional capabilities like F‑16s and Abrams tanks, but these are more vulnerable to China’s armed forces.
Initial Deliveries of Large Arms Sales
In good news for the backlog, press reports from Taiwan indicate that deliveries of the three largest arms sale packages—F‑16 aircraft ($8 billion), the Harpoon Coastal Defense System ($2.37 billion), and Abrams tanks ($2 billion)—have either started or will begin in the very near future.
The first of 66 newly built F‑16 aircraft, a sale notified to Congress in 2019, should arrive before the end of 2024, though the precise timing and number of aircraft that will arrive this year are unclear. The F‑16s were supposed to begin arriving earlier this year, but the delivery was shifted due to production delays.
The Liberty Times reported that equipment for ground-based Harpoon anti-ship missiles arrived in Taiwan. A first batch of 32 launchers (out of 100) and 128 missiles (out of 400) is expected in 2026. It is unclear if the equipment mentioned by Liberty Times refers to early delivery of this initial tranche or the delivery of supporting equipment with the launchers and missiles arriving later, though it is likely the latter.
Finally, a report by Taiwan’s Central News Agency on the army’s plans to train soldiers on Abrams tanks says that the first batch of 38 tanks (out of 108) should arrive in December 2024. Similar to the F‑16s, the tanks were originally supposed to arrive earlier in the year but were delayed.
Our monthly updates to the backlog dataset will make note of these deliveries as they advance. For many of the larger arms sale cases, Taiwan does not receive all the equipment at once. Instead, deliveries are spread out over a few years. Our dataset only removes items from the backlog once delivery is fully completed, but we will find ways to note which deliveries are in progress in future updates.
Presidential Drawdown
The final development in US security assistance to Taiwan is new information about equipment sent via Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA). Weapons sent through the PDA are drawn from existing US stockpiles and can be sent more rapidly than typical arms sales.
In July 2023, the United States announced a PDA package for Taiwan worth $345 million. In September 2024, the United States announced a second drawdown for Taiwan, valued at $567 million. Unlike PDA notices for weapons sent to Ukraine, neither of the two Taiwan PDA notices has gone into detail on the equipment being transferred.
A September 2024 report by the Department of Defense Office for the Inspector General (IG) reveals worrying information about the July 2023 drawdown. According to the IG report, “more than 340 of 504 total pallets of [Presidential Drawdown] items (about 67 percent) sustained water damage” as they waited for over three months at a US military base for airlift to Taiwan. Other problems mentioned in the IG report include moldy body armor, 40-year-old ammunition that was improperly packaged, and machine guns shipped in a cardboard box without any wrapping or cushioning.
While a second, larger PDA package is good news for quickly getting equipment into Taiwan’s hands, the sorry state of the first package is concerning and belies a lack of US prioritization despite repeatedly naming China as the “pacing threat.”
Taiwan Arms Backlog Dataset, September 2024
